It's a gas, baby ...

Not many hours to go in the old year but we see already the theme set for the next year(s). The Russian government's own gas company Gazprom has demanded a four-fold price increase from Ukraine for its gas supplies. Russia claims that the price increase was necessary to bring the Ukrainian prices to general world levels. However the whole fish stinks from the head. Russia bought almost all of Turkmenistans gas exports to tighten the supply situation for the Ukrainian company Naftogaz Ukrainy. The deadline for the (trade) dispute to be resolved is set to be 0:00 am on Jan 1st. Why is this also interesting for Germany? Because, most of the gas exports from Russia to Germany transit via Ukrainian territory (German gas suppliers say they are safe with a 70+ day reserve in stock). We were quite unhappy with Gerhard Schröders involvement in the new Baltic gas pipeline. Now some voices arise that Schröder's chairmanship of NEGP should put him in a good position to broker a deal with Gazprom (or maybe Putin directly). We also scorn such political-economical mingling.


(There must be a way to get it over here. By courtesy of Udo Leuschner)

It is clear that this sabre rattling is a "punishment" for Ukraine and its president Yuchenko for his pro-western orientation and his liberal position on such things as the frightening situation in Belorussia. Interfax recently polled the ordinary street folks and found out that a surprising 80% support the Gazprom position, claiming economic necessities for the price increases. Even more interesting seems to be that "only" 44% of the respondents feel sorry for the average Ukrainian citizen, who has to cope with the anticipated price increases and a laughable 30% have friendly feelings for their neighbour. 30%? Really that much? 80 years or communist brothership bring out a lofty 30%? We obviously have a lot to fix in 2006...

Imag(e)in(e) all the Russians

Recently I was invited to a dinner party of a German - US couple in Munich sharing a flat. Among the 2 main groups of guests, namely from the US and from Munich's greater surroundings, there was also a young lady from Moscow, whom I got acquainted with. The conversation started on some more harmless topics, like travelling in Russia, cooking Russian dishes and the like. However, it became sharper and a little bit huffy when I was leading the course of the discussion to more pressing things such as democracy and civil rights in Russia today. Ok, in general I know that one should avoid two things when talking to someone for the first time; politics and religion. But I am a nasty questioner and I naively exacerbated the situation when mentioning that Russia's image in the West is either dominated by indifference or ignorance.
Well, at the end we finally had a drink together and the evening was still a very enjoyable one, but one thing since then resounded a bit in me, which can be best summarized by asking "Has Russia an image problem?".
I am not sure what resounded in the journalists of Russia Profile who recently asked a similar question regarding Russia's image in the West.

Eric Kraus, chief strategist, Sovlink Securities in Moscow interestingly said that:
"We live in an era of “spin” and the Kremlin spin-doctors are rank amateurs at the art. The West DOES apply double (and triple, and quadruple...) standards to Russia. Russian terrorists become “freedom fighters,” murderous oligarchs suddenly become democrats, while Russia's move to seize control of her own mineral resources was adjudged almost as theft in Washington – as in, how did our oil get under your tundra?"

Donald Jensen, director of communications, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty adds:
"If there is a problem with Russia's international image – and increasingly there is – it is because Russia's ruling elite is often its own worst enemy. A press freer to discuss Russia’s warts might make elites cringe, but it would also better familiarize foreigners with the country’s complexity and the many good things that are happening. The result would be less an upgrade in image than an increase in familiarity. That, more than anything else, would lend credibility to the Russian perspective."

Aha. So the West expects too much. The Kreml's PR is too bad. The "elites" hinder or at least dont support the Russian press (who in itself has deficits) to give us a bit better propaganda. It is basically everybody's fault.
A few months ago our beloved new chairman of the the new gas pipeline for Germany (Yes, Gerd you only did it for our country! How unselfish! Thank you!!!) gave a joint interview with Putin for the biggest German daily BILD (we should say that their foreign politics department is not really renowned for, ... er, well foreign politics knowledge but still a very interesting interview):

QUESTION: Mr Chancellor, you were born in 1944. What image did you have of Russia as a young man?
GERHARD SCHROEDER: What I learned about Russia at school was enough only to provide a partial picture of this country. But there was always something that struck me about Russia. The size of this huge country that stretched all the way across two continents, from Europe to the very edge of Asia, always made an impression on me. For me, Russia was a great political power whose wise rulers and tsars had helped to decide European history. Then it was a country ruled by the communist party, that declared it was putting into practice the ideas of Marx and Engels. In the 1950s, of course, there was the image of Russia as an enemy, and there was an anti-communist sentiment that had a strong influence on the political climate in Germany. I have learned a lot since then about Russia, its history, culture, contribution to European culture, the patriotism and deep religious feelings of its people. What has become deeply rooted in my consciousness is the image of a vast country with a great diversity of peoples and languages and immense natural resources. The question always arises of its own accord: how do you manage such a huge country and preserve its integrity? I wouldn’t envy anyone who has to resolve such a mammoth undertaking. That is why I feel such respect for President Putin.

Already in January 2002, the DGAP made a more historic account of the Russian image problem and its changes across the years. And "Nowyje Iswestija" discussed this 6 weeks ago again.
Sergej Mironov, Head of the Russian federal council said that:
"...the Russian media is to blame. The foreign public has to draw their information from thrash heaps on the internet...".

We assume he was not only refering to Blogs like us, but also to Russian media who report about things that are not liked by the Kremlin. So the bad image about Russia in Mironov's eyes seems to be the fault of people who report about the undemocratic tendencies of the government. It would not surprise therefore if people like Mironov would favour a tight censorship and only good, clean, government-authorised coverage of events. It seems some people just do not get it.

So all in all, the Russian government had to act. After quite some thinking it was decided to establish a new media TV station "Russia Today", to promote a more "distinguished" (ha, ha) and positive (ho, ho) image of Russia and its policy makers via satellite. That the TV station is funded and directly controlled by the president and his administration is not communicated so openly. The channel was initiated by the Russian State TV "Rossija" and the state news agency "RIA Novosti", who both are not really what a western media critic would call independent. Russia Today generally is regarded as a propaganda tool to trumpet the state's views to the world. On December the 16th, Interfax reported thet just after 2 days, a hacker had blacked Russia Today's viewers' screens. Olga Romanowa, a journalist who recently resigned from the commentator's post at "REN TV", might have heard this with some amusement. She was basically physically blocked from continuing her work there. It seems that one of the last TV channels that had the guts to report about unshiny things of Russia and Moscow lost one of her biggest assets. A woman who dared to speak up.

Reality catches up with fiction

In Monty Pythons movie on the "Life of Brian" there was this scene about a medieval witch inquisition. The female suspect was put on the scales with a duck and it was up to the bystanders to guess if she really prooved to be a witch. The argumentation was that ducks would swim just as a piece of wood which in itself could burn. Just as witches do when burnt at the stake. Ergo - if she weighs as much as a duck she must be a witch - which was prooved then in the film.
What does this has to do with gas? Natural gas to be more precise. Well gas is burning too, as are the eyes of the public when they just heard that our "Altbundeskanzler" Gerd just is headed to become the chairman of the board of NEGP (Nordeuropäischen Gas-Pipeline-Gesellschaft / Northern European Gas Pipeline Society).
Wait a moment. Why does this ring a bell? Where is Jushno-Ruskoje? Why should we all learn a bit Swiss German now? And why is 51% more than 49%?
Where should we start with this story? A story that sounds a bit more like a movie from Hollywood? Let's start with NEGP. This company is a joint venture between Gazprom (holding 51%) and BASF and E.ON (each holding 24.5%). The NEGP will exit Russia somwhere near St.Petersburg (Vyborg), slumber cozily on the sea floor of the Baltic Sea and then enter Germany close to Greifswald. The pipeline will transport gas to Germany, drawing its supplies from the gasfield Jushno-Ruskoje which is expected to hold reserves of more than 700 billion cubic meter and beginning in 2010 should cover a third of the thirsty German gas consumers' appetite. Well, gas as such is not fishy but come on, Gerd as chairman of a company that will run the show of a multi-billion $ deal that he himself has brokered? That really smells fishy. As did his pushy engagement to get the deal done in the last months of his chancellorship in 2005. The pipeline has irritated the Polish and Baltic countries governemnt quite much for being not part in it.


(And they said they would have a board seat for you too!)

NEGP is not registered in Germany or Russia but in a small dorming city of Zug in Switzerland, not really known for his tax enforcement activities. (Boris Nemtov, who's bank Neftyanoi was just raided by Omon and prosecutors in Moscow this weekend, probably more because he is said to be a friend of Mikhail Kasyanov, a former finance minister under Yeltsin, should consider to put up business there. He has been the only opposition politician so far to say he will run for the presidency in 2008).
Yes we expected something like this somehow.
By the way, an other bank that was raided recently in Moscow by state officials was MDM bank. One of the biggest clients of MDM was Sibneft, when still run by Roman "Chukotka" Abramowitsch before it changed hands for roughly 13 bn US$ earlier this year. The new owner? Of course Gazprom. Now I just do have one question: can Gazprom swim?

The axes of eagle - Part 2, Kazakhstan

There are not that many colours left. Orange, rose, yellow, blue (denim) in the making,... An other revolution again? Has Kazakhstan already reached the level of being so fed up with the political and economical elite as its former soviet mates in Georgia or Ukraine?
Probably not. Yet. The country is large, 6 times the size of Germany. It is sparesly populated (only 5,5 per sq km, 15 mil overall). It showed relatively strong GDP growth (9,4% in 2004) and a gross national income of 2250$ that is expected to rise to 3200$ in 2005. The country has infact undergone a few reforms (frameworks on civil service, foreign direct investments, banking and pensions reforms) but it lacks one thing: a vision. Though oil revenues spill money into the state's pockets an effective management of the small wealth is still at large and the country has not managed to diversify beyond basic industries. HIV/AIDS is an other issue. Infection rates, according to the world bank, are rising fast.

The country supplied large scores of emrigrants with German ancestors. 230000 people with German family ties (though some of them pretty weak) are still estimated to live in Kazakhstan today. However German-Kazakh relations are relatively normal. The country supplied a fifth of German oil imports in the last year. There even exists a "Deutsches Theater" in Almaty.

On the 4th of December, presidential elections will tell the world more about the progress or stillstand of reform in Kazakhstan. The president Nursultan Nazarbayev, should likely win another 7 year term. But, the leading opposition candidate, Zharmakhan Tuyakbai is waiting to unite the still fragmented opposition.


(Tuyakbai, the next Viktor Yushchenko?)

Russia's relationship with Kazakhstan is mixed. There have been some irritation (the Baikonur Space Base), access to oil and the delivery of Kazakh oil to Europe, pipeline routes, how to deal with China etc. But Russian is still widely spoken in the country, there are Russian-Kazakh summits every now and then. Gas fields are divided ans shared between the two countries, space industry activities are continuing and border traffic and access should be simplified.
Russia is keen not to blunder with every former CIS state and probably will interfere too much like in the Ukraine. Many Russian simply dont care too much for the southern neighbour. That should change.


("I know what is playing in Kasaaaack!" by courtesy of Boratonline)

For those of you who still have a lack of knowledge on life, customs and people of Kazakhstan, I highly recommend to check out Borat. This excellent journalist made me understand the country for the first time ever.


(This is how you should meet your president. By courtesy of Boratonline)

The new journalist guard

Journalism and Russia? Not an easy task in the last years. Not only Russian foreign correspondents but also Russia's own scores of writers fight a seemingly endless battle for bringing the truth to light.

The 24th of November now saw the latest award ceremony in Moscow of the "Journalistenpreis des Verbandes der Deutschen Wirtschaft in der Russischen Föderation (VDW)" (Journalist award of the association of the German Economy in the Russian Federation).
An event that is happening bi-annually and that is sponsored by E.ON Ruhrgas, Volkswagen, Siemens, Deutsche Management-Akademie Niedersachsen, Deutsche Messe AG, REWICO and Grundig. As long as they only pay and not interfere too much in the jury decision, we welcome such social sponsoring.
Talking about the jury is also not uninteresting. Pundits such as Gerd Ruge (chairman of the jury and THE godfather of German journalism concerning Russia), Thomas Roth (former ARD-correspondent in Moscow), Ina Ruck (ARD), Dirk Sager (Russian correspondent for the ZDF), Jelena Fjodorowa (REN-TV), Wladimir Kondratjew (NTW) and Jewgeni Grigorjew (Nesawissimaja Gaseta) were all there. This at least gives us the impression of real credibility.
Anything else? Ah, of course the laureates, how could I forget:

Jens Hartmann for his article „Einmal Privatisierung und zurück/Return ticket for privatisation“ (Welt newspaper, 24th June 2004). He now works in Russia as a free correspondent.
Wjatscheslaw Mostowoi for his work as correspondent from 1992 to 2001 of the Russian 1st channel in Berlin. He coined the image of Germany and Germans in Russia. Today he works as a vice president of TW Zentr.
Alexander Schestkow (REN-TV) for a TV documentary "Diener des Volkes/Servants or the people" for comparing the state administration in Russia and Germany. He received the award in the category "young journalists".
Tobias Zihn for his article "Nur Moskau lebt – und der Rest des Landes dämmert vor sich hin/Only Moscow lives - and the rest of the country dozes"(Moskauer Deutsche Zeitung MDZ). He received the award in the category "young journalists".

We will be watching closely.